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Vote for “Brexit” – against all Odds; knocks British Pound -11% lower vs US$ and -15% vs Japan’s yen; within Six hours


Jun 28, 2016

     Nigel Farage, the man whose party split the Tories and prompted the calls for referendum on the UK’s continued membership within the EU, had some choice words to say as he basked in the result. A majority of UK voters opted to exit from the European Union, – dubbed Brexit on June 24th. “The Vote to Leave has won without a ‘single bullet being fired’. ‘Today honesty, decency and belief in nation, is going to win,’ Farage said. “And we will have done it without a single bullet being fired, we’d have done it by damned hard work on the ground.” In a much anticipated speech to The House of Commons, UK PM (for now) David Cameron is expected to tell his parliamentary peers that he and his cabinet agree there will be no second referendum as part of a formal statement on the Brexit vote.

     A British exit from the European Union could cause some turmoil in the global markets for a while. But that would eventually pass, if the fallout is generally contained. Much darker scenarios for the global economy are also being discussed if Brexit becomes a turning point, an event that snowballs and leads to much larger and nastier problems. It could deal a setback to free trade and globalization, which many disgruntled voters around the world are already cool on. And it could trigger more defections from the EU, destabilizing the region, and unsettling Multi-National companies and consumers. Italy and the Netherlands might be the next countries to have a chance to leave the European Union, following the UK’s lead. The electorates across Europe are in an insurrectionist mood. Italy, for example, has had virtually no real growth since it joined the Euro in 1999. A more nationalist, anti-EU fervor in Italy could show up. The Italian political establishment has until recently been as dismissive of its chances of losing the referendum – until Friday morning.

     Prior to the Brexit vote, there were massive brainwashing efforts, that were organized by the political leaders of the British parliament, the US president, the IMF, the members of the Bank of England, and the top brass of the European Commission to convince UK voters to stay in the EU. The liberal media was a willing tool in the scaremongering campaign, and pollsters were using questionable methodologies that deceptively showed the majority of voters preferred to stay in the EU, by an average margin of +6%.

     Affluent gamblers in the Uk’s vibrant betting markets were placing big wagers that were five times as large as the average bettor, in favor of “Remain” and thereby skewing the odds to as much as 12-to-1, at the close of voting on Thursday night, 10-pm local London time. At William Hill, the UK’s biggest bookie, 75% of the total money bet had gone on “Remain.” Yet in terms of the actual numbers of bets made – it was the other way round: 75% of individual bets were on “Leave” and 25% on “Remain.” At bookie Ladbrokes, 82% of the monies bet on June 23rd, the day of the vote was on “Remain.” The average size of the bet for Remain was £376 or about five time as large as the average bet for “Leave,” which as £72.

     Traders in the global financial markets were influenced by the betting odds in London, and had bid up the British pound to as high as US$1.5015 and 160-yen, on Thursday evening, as the voting wound down in the UK. Just after 10-pm local time, Betfair was offering 12-to-1 odds in favor of Remain, for less than a 10% chance that the UK would vote for Brexit. At the same time, the odds of Brexit prevailing plunged to as low as 8-cents on the dollar at the on-line betting exchange; Predicit. Gamblers had given up all hope of a winning vote for Brexit soon after the voting stations closed across the UK.

     In hindsight, traders in the betting parlors and the financial markets were influenced and badly misguided by faulty public opinion polls that uniformly showed a vote for Remaining in the EU, in the lead, by an average of +6%. One poll taken before the day of the actual vote showed Remain with 55% and Leave with 45%,for a whopping +10-point lead. Opinion polls are a weapon in the hands of the corporate controlled media, that are routinely used to influence the public’s perceptions and thinking about the world around them. In the futures, traders need to understand that there is a Liberal bias embedded in opinion polls that skew the information that is used to brainwash to the general public.

     Yet the British people just did something sensible: They decided their own national and economic sovereignty is vital in determining their future — and rejected The European Commission, which proposes European Law, and is undemocratic – neither its lawmakers nor its 85,000 bureaucrats (only 3.6% of whom are British) are accountable through the ballot box. The EU is an edifice built on lies — starting with the blatant untruth, peddled when the UK signed up to the Common Market in 1973, that it was joining a tariff-free trading zone, which would involve no sacrifice of sovereignty.

     However, more than 40 years on, some 60% of the UK’s laws and 70% of regulations are dictated to the the UK by Brussels, whose power is only matched by its incompetence and corruption. The irrefutable fact is that the EU is ruled by a secretive, un-elected commission, whose diktats are backed by a court able to override elected democracies.

     The majority of English voters rejected the whims of Europe’s political elites, the mighty corporations and outside billionaires that spend millions lobbying Brussels, determined to get the bureaucrats to protect their monopolies. The working class communities in Britain are enraged by with mass immigration into their country that is depressing workers’ wages, and driving up the costs of welfare spending. Up to five million more EU migrants are set to settle in Britain over the next 20 years if Britain remains in the European bloc, a bombshell report warned. Net migration from other EU countries could reach a massive 320,000 every year by 2035 if Brussels freedom-of-movement rules are given to Turkish citizens, according to research from the think tank Migration Watch.

     Around 100,000 Turks could be expected to head for Britain in the immediate aftermath of their country getting full Brussels free-movement rights, the report estimated. Once non-EU migrants are included in the forecast, the figure rises to a staggering 7.1-million more migrants by 2035. And even without Turkish entry into the EU, immigration is set to reach a level that will have “serious consequences for the UK’s population and its quality of life”, Migration Watch warned.

     Thus, at the end of the day, the fear of mass immigration into the UK, trumped the fears of a possible economic recession in the UK, as a result of voting for Brexit. As the early results of the voting rolled across the TV screens, showing Brexit outperforming in Labor strongholds such as NewCastle, Sunderland, Manchester, and Birmingham, and winning in Wales, the British pound plunged into a nosedive against the Japanese yen and the US$. Sterling sank to its lowest level against the US$ in 31 years, shortly after Britain decided to end 43 years of EU membership. The pound dropped -15% against Japan’s yen, and -11% against the US$; during its biggest two-day fall since the era of free-floating currencies began in 1971.

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